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Nova Iguaçu U20 vs Portuguesa RJ U20 — League #1114 2026

Nova Iguaçu U20
Nova Iguaçu U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portuguesa RJ U20
Portuguesa RJ U20
Unknown 45+8'
7/27/2024League #1114League #1114 · Taça Guanabara - 8Estádio Jânio de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nova Iguaçu U2054%
×Draw33%
Portuguesa RJ U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nova Iguaçu U20
1.13
Portuguesa RJ U20
0.42

Nova Iguaçu U20 creates 169% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nova Iguaçu U20
1.00
Portuguesa RJ U20
0.50

allows per match

Nova Iguaçu U20
0.33
Portuguesa RJ U20
1.25

finishing

Nova Iguaçu U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa RJ U20+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Iguaçu U20 ↓

Portuguesa RJ U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Nova Iguaçu U20 or draw
86%
Nova Iguaçu U20 or Portuguesa RJ U20
67%
Draw or Portuguesa RJ U20
46%

Winning margin

Nova Iguaçu U20 wins by 2+
24%
Portuguesa RJ U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nova Iguaçu U20 1+ goals
68%
Nova Iguaçu U20 2+ goals
31%
Nova Iguaçu U20 3+ goals
11%
Portuguesa RJ U20 1+ goals
34%
Portuguesa RJ U20 2+ goals
7%
Portuguesa RJ U20 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nova Iguaçu U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Portuguesa RJ U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Iguaçu U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Portuguesa RJ U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Iguaçu U20 attack 1.00 + Portuguesa RJ U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Portuguesa RJ U20 attack 0.50 + Nova Iguaçu U20 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nova Iguaçu U20 scores more
54%
level
33%
Portuguesa RJ U20 scores more
14%

Nova Iguaçu U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nova Iguaçu U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nova Iguaçu U20 vs Portuguesa RJ U20

Nova Iguaçu U20 beat Portuguesa RJ U20 1-0 in League #1114 on July 27, 2024.

Goals: ? (45+8').

The match was played at Estádio Jânio de Moraes in Nova Iguaçu, Rio de Janeiro.