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NouLa vs TuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

NouLa
NouLa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
TuPS
TuPS
4/9/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundIntersport Puhos Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

NouLa20%
×Draw19%
TuPS61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NouLa
1.25
TuPS
2.31

TuPS creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

NouLa
1.50
TuPS
2.88

allows per match

NouLa
1.75
TuPS
1.00

finishing

NouLa+0.00on par
TuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NouLa ↓

TuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

NouLa or draw
39%
NouLa or TuPS
81%
Draw or TuPS
80%

Winning margin

NouLa wins by 2+
8%
TuPS wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

NouLa 1+ goals
71%
NouLa 2+ goals
36%
NouLa 3+ goals
13%
TuPS 1+ goals
90%
TuPS 2+ goals
67%
TuPS 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

NouLa (draw refunded)
25%
TuPS (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NouLa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

TuPS away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NouLa attack 1.50 + TuPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

TuPS attack 2.88 + NouLa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

NouLa scores more
20%
level
19%
TuPS scores more
61%

TuPS at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "TuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NouLa vs TuPS

NouLa beat TuPS 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Intersport Puhos Areena in Tuusula.