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NouLa vs Kultsu — Suomen Cup 2018

NouLa
NouLa
FT
4 – 1
Kultsu
Kultsu
3/26/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundNordea kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

NouLa15%
×Draw16%
Kultsu69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NouLa
1.31
Kultsu
2.88

Kultsu creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

NouLa
1.50
Kultsu
4.00

allows per match

NouLa
1.75
Kultsu
1.13

finishing

NouLa+0.00on par
Kultsu+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NouLa ↓

Kultsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

NouLa or draw
31%
NouLa or Kultsu
84%
Draw or Kultsu
85%

Winning margin

NouLa wins by 2+
6%
Kultsu wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

NouLa 1+ goals
73%
NouLa 2+ goals
38%
NouLa 3+ goals
14%
Kultsu 1+ goals
94%
Kultsu 2+ goals
78%
Kultsu 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

NouLa (draw refunded)
18%
Kultsu (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NouLa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kultsu away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NouLa attack 1.50 + Kultsu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kultsu attack 4.00 + NouLa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

NouLa scores more
15%
level
16%
Kultsu scores more
69%

Kultsu at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kultsu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: NouLa 4–1 Kultsu

NouLa beat Kultsu 4-1 in Suomen Cup on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Nordea kenttä in Tuusula.