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Nouakchott King's vs Sahel — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott King's
Nouakchott King's
FT
1 – 2
Sahel
Sahel
5/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 3Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nouakchott King's42%
×Draw31%
Sahel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott King's
1.10
Sahel
0.82

Nouakchott King's creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nouakchott King's
1.38
Sahel
0.73

allows per match

Nouakchott King's
0.91
Sahel
0.82

finishing

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par
Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott King's ↓

Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nouakchott King's or draw
73%
Nouakchott King's or Sahel
69%
Draw or Sahel
58%

Winning margin

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+
17%
Sahel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals
67%
Nouakchott King's 2+ goals
30%
Nouakchott King's 3+ goals
10%
Sahel 1+ goals
56%
Sahel 2+ goals
20%
Sahel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)
61%
Sahel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott King's at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Sahel away — creates 0.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott King's attack 1.38 + Sahel defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sahel attack 0.73 + Nouakchott King's defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nouakchott King's scores more
42%
level
31%
Sahel scores more
27%

Nouakchott King's at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouakchott King's vs Sahel

Sahel beat Nouakchott King's 2-1 in Premier League on May 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.