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Nouakchott Academie vs Tevragh-Zeïne — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tevragh-Zeïne
Tevragh-Zeïne
1/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie37%
×Draw27%
Tevragh-Zeïne36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott Academie
1.27
Tevragh-Zeïne
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.62
Tevragh-Zeïne
1.32

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.15
Tevragh-Zeïne
0.92

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par
Tevragh-Zeïne+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

Tevragh-Zeïne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw
64%
Nouakchott Academie or Tevragh-Zeïne
73%
Draw or Tevragh-Zeïne
63%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
16%
Tevragh-Zeïne wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
72%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
36%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
14%
Tevragh-Zeïne 1+ goals
71%
Tevragh-Zeïne 2+ goals
35%
Tevragh-Zeïne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
51%
Tevragh-Zeïne (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Tevragh-Zeïne away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + Tevragh-Zeïne defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tevragh-Zeïne attack 1.32 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more
37%
level
27%
Tevragh-Zeïne scores more
36%

Nouakchott Academie at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouakchott Academie 3–1 Tevragh-Zeïne

Nouakchott Academie beat Tevragh-Zeïne 3-1 in Premier League on January 28, 2026.