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Nouakchott Academie vs SNIM — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SNIM
SNIM
Unknown 85', 74'
Unknown 26'
5/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie44%
×Draw28%
SNIM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott Academie
1.33
SNIM
1.03

Nouakchott Academie creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.62
SNIM
0.91

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.15
SNIM
1.05

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par
SNIM+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

SNIM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw
71%
Nouakchott Academie or SNIM
72%
Draw or SNIM
56%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
20%
SNIM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
74%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
38%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
15%
SNIM 1+ goals
64%
SNIM 2+ goals
28%
SNIM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
60%
SNIM (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

SNIM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + SNIM defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

SNIM attack 0.91 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more
44%
level
28%
SNIM scores more
29%

Nouakchott Academie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
74'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouakchott Academie 2–1 SNIM

Nouakchott Academie beat SNIM 2-1 in Premier League on May 24, 2026.

Goals: ? (26', 74', 85').