Nouakchott Academie 2–0 Inter Nouakchott

Nouakchott Academie

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Inter Nouakchott

M. El Hafedh 29'

K. Niass 15'

5/11/2026

Premier League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie51%

×Draw26%

Inter Nouakchott23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nouakchott AcademieExpected goals in this matchInter Nouakchott

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.96

Nouakchott Academie

1.55

Inter Nouakchott

0.96

Nouakchott Academie creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 66 away

1.62

creates per match

0.77

1.15

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie

1.62

Inter Nouakchott

0.77

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie

1.15

Inter Nouakchott

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

Inter Nouakchott →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw

77%

Nouakchott Academie or Inter Nouakchott

74%

Draw or Inter Nouakchott

49%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+

26%

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals

79%

Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals

46%

Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals

20%

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals

62%

Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals

25%

Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)

69%

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Inter Nouakchott away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Inter Nouakchott attack 0.77 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more

51%

level

26%

Inter Nouakchott scores more

23%

Nouakchott Academie at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

K. Niass

29'

M. El Hafedh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff