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Nouakchott Academie vs Chemal — Premier League 2020

Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chemal
Chemal
10/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nouakchott Academie41%
×Draw26%
Chemal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouakchott Academie
1.41
Chemal
1.23

Nouakchott Academie creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

creates per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.62
Chemal
1.30

allows per match

Nouakchott Academie
1.15
Chemal
1.19

finishing

Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par
Chemal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouakchott Academie ↓

Chemal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nouakchott Academie or draw
67%
Nouakchott Academie or Chemal
74%
Draw or Chemal
59%

Winning margin

Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
19%
Chemal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
76%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
41%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
17%
Chemal 1+ goals
71%
Chemal 2+ goals
35%
Chemal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
56%
Chemal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouakchott Academie at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Chemal away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouakchott Academie attack 1.62 + Chemal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Chemal attack 1.30 + Nouakchott Academie defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nouakchott Academie scores more
41%
level
26%
Chemal scores more
33%

Nouakchott Academie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouakchott Academie vs Chemal

Chemal beat Nouakchott Academie 2-1 in Premier League on October 17, 2025.