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Nouadhibou vs Tidjikja — Premier League 2020

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
3 – 0
Tidjikja
Tidjikja
4/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nouadhibou53%
×Draw26%
Tidjikja20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.48
Tidjikja
0.80

Nouadhibou creates 85% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 24 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.99
Tidjikja
1.08

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.51
Tidjikja
0.96

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Tidjikja+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Tidjikja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
80%
Nouadhibou or Tidjikja
74%
Draw or Tidjikja
47%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
27%
Tidjikja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
77%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
43%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
19%
Tidjikja 1+ goals
55%
Tidjikja 2+ goals
19%
Tidjikja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
72%
Tidjikja (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.51 · 77 matches

Tidjikja away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.99 + Tidjikja defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tidjikja attack 1.08 + Nouadhibou defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
53%
level
26%
Tidjikja scores more
20%

Nouadhibou at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouadhibou 3–0 Tidjikja

Nouadhibou beat Tidjikja 3-0 in Premier League on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.