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Nouadhibou vs Pyramids FC — CAF Champions League 2019

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
12/2/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 2Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nouadhibou37%
×Draw33%
Pyramids FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
0.96
Pyramids FC
0.85

Nouadhibou creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.14
Pyramids FC
1.00

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.71
Pyramids FC
0.78

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
69%
Nouadhibou or Pyramids FC
67%
Draw or Pyramids FC
63%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
14%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
62%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
25%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
7%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
57%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
21%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
54%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.14 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + Nouadhibou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
37%
level
33%
Pyramids FC scores more
31%

Nouadhibou at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouadhibou vs Pyramids FC

Nouadhibou beat Pyramids FC 2-0 in CAF Champions League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.