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Nouadhibou vs Kaédi — Premier League 2020

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kaédi
Kaédi
3/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nouadhibou64%
×Draw22%
Kaédi14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.81
Kaédi
0.70

Nouadhibou creates 159% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.99
Kaédi
0.88

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.51
Kaédi
1.64

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Kaédi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Kaédi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
86%
Nouadhibou or Kaédi
78%
Draw or Kaédi
36%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
38%
Kaédi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
84%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
54%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
27%
Kaédi 1+ goals
50%
Kaédi 2+ goals
16%
Kaédi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
82%
Kaédi (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.51 · 77 matches

Kaédi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.64 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.99 + Kaédi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kaédi attack 0.88 + Nouadhibou defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
64%
level
22%
Kaédi scores more
14%

Nouadhibou at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouadhibou 3–1 Kaédi

Nouadhibou beat Kaédi 3-1 in Premier League on March 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.