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Nouadhibou vs Inter Nouakchott — Premier League 2020

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
12/4/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nouadhibou64%
×Draw23%
Inter Nouakchott13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.73
Inter Nouakchott
0.64

Nouadhibou creates 170% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.99
Inter Nouakchott
0.77

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.51
Inter Nouakchott
1.48

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Inter Nouakchott →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
87%
Nouadhibou or Inter Nouakchott
77%
Draw or Inter Nouakchott
36%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
37%
Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
82%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
52%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
25%
Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
47%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
14%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
83%
Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.51 · 77 matches

Inter Nouakchott away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.99 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.73

Inter Nouakchott attack 0.77 + Nouadhibou defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
64%
level
23%
Inter Nouakchott scores more
13%

Nouadhibou at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouadhibou vs Inter Nouakchott

Nouadhibou beat Inter Nouakchott 4-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.