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Inter Nouakchott vs Nouadhibou — Premier League 2020

Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
5/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Inter Nouakchott21%
×Draw26%
Nouadhibou52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Nouakchott
0.85
Nouadhibou
1.50

Nouadhibou creates 76% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 80 away

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.14
Nouadhibou
1.66

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.33
Nouadhibou
0.57

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par
Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Nouadhibou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw
48%
Inter Nouakchott or Nouadhibou
74%
Draw or Nouadhibou
79%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
7%
Nouadhibou wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
57%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
21%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
5%
Nouadhibou 1+ goals
78%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
44%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
29%
Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Nouadhibou defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Nouadhibou attack 1.66 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more
21%
level
26%
Nouadhibou scores more
52%

Nouadhibou at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Nouakchott 0–2 Nouadhibou

Nouadhibou beat Inter Nouakchott 2-0 in Premier League on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.