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Nouadhibou vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
11/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Nouadhibou56%
×Draw26%
Garde Nationale17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.50
Garde Nationale
0.70

Nouadhibou creates 114% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 64 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.99
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.51
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
83%
Nouadhibou or Garde Nationale
74%
Draw or Garde Nationale
44%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
29%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
78%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
44%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
19%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
50%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
16%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
76%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.51 · 77 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.99 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Nouadhibou defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
56%
level
26%
Garde Nationale scores more
17%

Nouadhibou at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nouadhibou 0–0 Garde Nationale

Nouadhibou and Garde Nationale drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.