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Nouadhibou vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Premier League 2020

Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
11/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Stade Municipal de Nouadhibou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nouadhibou36%
×Draw27%
Al Hilal Omdurman37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nouadhibou
1.22
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nouadhibou
1.99
Al Hilal Omdurman
2.00

allows per match

Nouadhibou
0.51
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.44

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw
63%
Nouadhibou or Al Hilal Omdurman
73%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
64%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+
15%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals
70%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
34%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
12%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
71%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
36%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
49%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.51 · 77 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.99 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.00 + Nouadhibou defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nouadhibou scores more
36%
level
27%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
37%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nouadhibou vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Nouadhibou and Al Hilal Omdurman drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Nouadhibou in Nouadhibou.