Nouadhibou 2–0 Al Ahli Tripoli: Result & Stats

Nouadhibou

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Tripoli

8/20/2023

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nouadhibou48%

×Draw31%

Al Ahli Tripoli21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NouadhibouExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Tripoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.66

Nouadhibou

1.17

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.66

Nouadhibou creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

0.60

0.71

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Nouadhibou

1.14

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.60

allows per match

Nouadhibou

0.71

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nouadhibou ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nouadhibou or draw

79%

Nouadhibou or Al Ahli Tripoli

69%

Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli

52%

Winning margin

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

21%

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

69%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

33%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

11%

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals

48%

Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals

14%

Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

70%

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nouadhibou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nouadhibou attack 1.14 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 0.60 + Nouadhibou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nouadhibou scores more

48%

level

31%

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more

21%

Nouadhibou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff