Notvikens IK 0–4 Umea FF: Result & Stats

Notvikens IK

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Umea FF

8/5/2023

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 15Notvikens IK Fotboll Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Notvikens IK18%

×Draw22%

Umea FF60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notvikens IKExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.88

Notvikens IK

0.92

Umea FF

1.88

Umea FF creates 104% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

1.00

creates per match

2.09

1.67

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Notvikens IK

1.00

Umea FF

2.09

allows per match

Notvikens IK

1.67

Umea FF

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notvikens IK+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notvikens IK ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Notvikens IK or draw

40%

Notvikens IK or Umea FF

78%

Draw or Umea FF

82%

Winning margin

Notvikens IK wins by 2+

6%

Umea FF wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Notvikens IK 1+ goals

60%

Notvikens IK 2+ goals

23%

Notvikens IK 3+ goals

7%

Umea FF 1+ goals

85%

Umea FF 2+ goals

56%

Umea FF 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Notvikens IK (draw refunded)

23%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notvikens IK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notvikens IK attack 1.00 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Notvikens IK defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Notvikens IK scores more

18%

level

22%

Umea FF scores more

60%

Umea FF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff