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Notts County vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Notts County
Notts County
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Grimsby
Grimsby
8/22/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Notts County44%
×Draw26%
Grimsby30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notts County
1.50
Grimsby
1.20

Notts County creates 25% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 158 away

creates per match

Notts County
1.60
Grimsby
1.11

allows per match

Notts County
1.28
Grimsby
1.41

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Notts County or draw
70%
Notts County or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
56%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+
22%
Grimsby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals
78%
Notts County 2+ goals
44%
Notts County 3+ goals
19%
Grimsby 1+ goals
70%
Grimsby 2+ goals
34%
Grimsby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)
59%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.60 + Grimsby defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Grimsby attack 1.11 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Notts County scores more
44%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
30%

Notts County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Notts County vs Grimsby

Notts County beat Grimsby 4-1 in League Two on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Meadow Lane in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.