Notts County 4–3 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Forest Green

D. McGoldrick 68'

J. Bostock 65'

M. Langstaff 37'

D. Crowley 18'

T. Deeney 79' (pen), 61', 56'

9/23/2023

League Two · Round 9Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Notts County41%

×Draw26%

Forest Green33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.26

Notts County

1.44

Forest Green

1.26

Notts County creates 14% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 90 away

1.61

creates per match

1.36

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Notts County

1.61

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Notts County

1.16

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

67%

Notts County or Forest Green

74%

Draw or Forest Green

59%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

20%

Forest Green wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

76%

Notts County 2+ goals

42%

Notts County 3+ goals

18%

Forest Green 1+ goals

72%

Forest Green 2+ goals

36%

Forest Green 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

56%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 95 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.61 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Notts County defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Notts County scores more

41%

level

26%

Forest Green scores more

33%

Notts County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Deeney

Forest Green · F

9.3

Match Events

18'

D. Crowley↳ J. Jones

37'

M. Langstaff↳ D. McGoldrick

41'

Reece Brown

43'

Kyle Cameron

56'

T. Deeney↳ K. McAllister

59'

Ryan Inniss

60'

Charlie McCann

61'

T. Deeney↳ R. Inniss

62'

O. Adebayo-Rowling← S. Austin

65'

J. Bostock

66'

M. Lavinier← T. Jenks

66'

M. Taylor← M. Stevens

68'

D. McGoldrick↳ J. Jones

70'

C. Rawlinson← A. Baldwin

70'

J. O'Brien← J. Bostock

79'

T. DeeneyPenalty

84'

Troy Deeney

84'

Marcel Lavinier

86'

T. Omotoye← J. Robson

89'

David McGoldrick

90+6'

Tobi Adebayo-Rowling

90+5'

A. Chicksen← J. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsForest

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots14

7Corners10

10Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

6On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked7

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

538Total Passes379

451Accurate Passes289

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides4