Notts County 1–2 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Doncaster

A. Jatta 90+5'

R. Street 28', 18'

5/3/2025

League Two · Round 46Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Notts County44%

×Draw24%

Doncaster31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.31

Notts County

1.61

Doncaster

1.31

Notts County creates 23% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

1.81

creates per match

1.38

1.24

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Notts County

1.81

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Notts County

1.24

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

69%

Notts County or Doncaster

76%

Draw or Doncaster

56%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

23%

Doncaster wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

80%

Notts County 2+ goals

48%

Notts County 3+ goals

22%

Doncaster 1+ goals

73%

Doncaster 2+ goals

38%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

59%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.24 · 72 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.81 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Notts County defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Notts County scores more

44%

level

24%

Doncaster scores more

31%

Notts County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Street

Doncaster · F

8.0

Match Events

18'

R. Street

28'

R. Street↳ J. Sterry

44'

Robert Street

61'

L. Macari← R. McDonald

62'

W. Jarvis← K. Gordon

72'

T. Nixon← J. Maxwell

72'

J. Sbarra← J. Gibson

73'

C. Edwards← C. Whitaker

73'

S. Austin← C. Grant

82'

Z. Westbrooke← C. Crew

82'

B. Sharp← R. Street

85'

J. Hinchy← G. Abbott

85'

E. Ennis← L. Molyneux

90+5'

A. Jatta↳ S. Austin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsDoncaster

Overview

66%Possession34%

11Total Shots9

7Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target4

4Off Target5

3Blocked0

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

538Total Passes288

456Accurate Passes206

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1