Notts County 2–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

A. Jatta 90', 72'

10/25/2025

League Two · Round 14Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Notts County42%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Notts County

1.41

Cambridge United

1.19

Notts County creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.87

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Notts County

1.87

Cambridge United

1.38

allows per match

Notts County

1.00

Cambridge United

0.95

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Notts County-0.49scores less

Cambridge United-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

68%

Notts County or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

58%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

20%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

76%

Notts County 2+ goals

41%

Notts County 3+ goals

17%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

70%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

33%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

57%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.87 + Cambridge United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cambridge United attack 1.38 + Notts County defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Notts County scores more

42%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

32%

Notts County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Jatta

Notts County · F

9.0

Match Events

22'

L. Ness← R. McDonald

30'

Shayne Lavery

36'

E. Kachunga← S. Lavery

53'

Sullay Kaikai

54'

Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu

61'

T. Iorpenda← S. Robertson

62'

K. Bennetts← N. Tsaroulla

62'

M. Dennis← C. Grant

72'

A. Jatta↳ J. Jones

77'

J. Brophy← S. Kaikai

77'

K. Smith← D. Ball

77'

B. Knight← B. Purrington

78'

78'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsCambridge

Overview

66%Possession34%

4Total Shots5

0Corners5

12Fouls17

Shots

4Total Shots5

3On Target1

1Off Target4

0Blocked0

2Inside Box4

2Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

596Total Passes288

484Accurate Passes170

81%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3