Notts County 1–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

N. Tsaroulla 27'

E. Harrison 55'

5/2/2026

League Two · Round 46Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Notts County41%

×Draw26%

Bristol Rovers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Notts County

1.42

Bristol Rovers

1.23

Notts County creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.61

creates per match

1.35

1.10

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Notts County

1.61

Bristol Rovers

1.35

allows per match

Notts County

1.10

Bristol Rovers

1.23

-1.01scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Notts County-1.01scores less

Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

67%

Notts County or Bristol Rovers

74%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

59%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

20%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

76%

Notts County 2+ goals

41%

Notts County 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

71%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

35%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

56%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.10 · 5 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.61 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Notts County defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Notts County scores more

41%

level

26%

Bristol Rovers scores more

33%

Notts County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Harrison

Bristol Rovers · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

Nick Tsaroulla

20'

Shaqai Forde

27'

N. Tsaroulla

46'

T. Leigh← P. Omochere

46'

Y. Akhamrich← R. De Havilland

55'

E. Harrison↳ T. Leigh

58'

M. Palmer← O. Norburn

59'

S. Robertson← J. Luker

59'

T. Hall← C. Grant

65'

71'

72'

73'

73'

75'

77'

79'

J. Quigley← E. Harrison

79'

F. Cavegn← S. Forde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsBristol

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots12

1.53Expected Goals (xG)1.53

5Corners3

11Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target4

2Off Target3

6Blocked5

8Inside Box10

6Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

474Total Passes317

392Accurate Passes227

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0