Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nottingham Forest W vs Sporting Khalsa W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Nottingham Forest W
Nottingham Forest W
FT
3 – 2
Sporting Khalsa W
Sporting Khalsa W
11/26/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundGrange Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nottingham Forest W57%
×Draw16%
Sporting Khalsa W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest W
3.63
Sporting Khalsa W
2.50

Nottingham Forest W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest W
3.00
Sporting Khalsa W
2.00

allows per match

Nottingham Forest W
3.00
Sporting Khalsa W
4.25

finishing

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par
Sporting Khalsa W+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest W ↓

Sporting Khalsa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–35%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest W or draw
74%
Nottingham Forest W or Sporting Khalsa W
84%
Draw or Sporting Khalsa W
43%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+
40%
Sporting Khalsa W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals
97%
Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals
87%
Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals
68%
Sporting Khalsa W 1+ goals
92%
Sporting Khalsa W 2+ goals
71%
Sporting Khalsa W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)
69%
Sporting Khalsa W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Sporting Khalsa W away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.00 + Sporting Khalsa W defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.63

Sporting Khalsa W attack 2.00 + Nottingham Forest W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nottingham Forest W scores more
57%
level
16%
Sporting Khalsa W scores more
26%

Nottingham Forest W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nottingham Forest W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest W vs Sporting Khalsa W

Nottingham Forest W beat Sporting Khalsa W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Grange Park in Long Eaton, Derbyshire.