Nottingham Forest W 1–7 Everton W: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest W

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

Everton W

2/11/2024

FA Women's Cup · 5th RoundGrange Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nottingham Forest W28%

×Draw18%

Everton W54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest WExpected goals in this matchEverton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.91

Nottingham Forest W

2.13

Everton W

2.91

Everton W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

3.00

creates per match

2.82

3.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Nottingham Forest W

3.00

Everton W

2.82

allows per match

Nottingham Forest W

3.00

Everton W

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par

Everton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest W ↓

Everton W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest W or draw

46%

Nottingham Forest W or Everton W

82%

Draw or Everton W

72%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+

15%

Everton W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals

88%

Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals

63%

Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals

35%

Everton W 1+ goals

94%

Everton W 2+ goals

78%

Everton W 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)

35%

Everton W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Everton W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.00 + Everton W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Everton W attack 2.82 + Nottingham Forest W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nottingham Forest W scores more

28%

level

18%

Everton W scores more

54%

Everton W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest W vs Everton W

Everton W beat Nottingham Forest W 7-1 in FA Women's Cup on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Grange Park in Long Eaton, Derbyshire.

Nottingham Forest W vs Everton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest W vs Everton W