Nottingham Forest 4–3 Southampton: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Southampton

Danilo 73'

M. Gibbs-White 44' (pen)

T. Awoniyi 21', 18'

J. Ward-Prowse 90+6' (pen)

Lyanco 51'

C. Alcaraz 25'

5/8/2023

Premier League · Round 35The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Nottingham Forest45%

×Draw26%

Southampton29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Nottingham Forest

1.45

Southampton

1.10

Nottingham Forest creates 32% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 168 away

1.25

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.25

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.12

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

71%

Nottingham Forest or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

55%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

22%

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

77%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

42%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

18%

Southampton 1+ goals

67%

Southampton 2+ goals

30%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

61%

Southampton (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.25 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Southampton attack 1.08 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

45%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

29%

Nottingham Forest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ward-Prowse

Southampton · M

8.7

Match Events

18'

T. Awoniyi↳ B. Johnson

21'

T. Awoniyi↳ Danilo

25'

C. Alcaraz↳ S. Armstrong

38'

Lyanco← A. Bella-Kotchap

44'

M. Gibbs-WhitePenalty

51'

Lyanco↳ J. Ward-Prowse

61'

K. Sulemana← T. Walcott

64'

J. Worrall← S. Aurier

70'

C. Kouyaté← R. Yates

73'

Danilo↳ M. Gibbs-White

76'

P. Onuachu← C. Adams

76'

A. Armstrong← C. Alcaraz

76'

S. Edozie← S. Armstrong

78'

Renan Lodi

81'

S. Surridge← T. Awoniyi

81'

H. Toffolo← Renan Lodi

81'

W. Boly← B. Johnson

90+2'

FelipeGoal cancelled

90+6'

J. Ward-ProwsePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamSouthampton

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots19

1.80Expected Goals (xG)3.24

2Corners11

16Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots19

4On Target5

3Off Target9

2Blocked5

8Inside Box15

1Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

306Total Passes537

213Accurate Passes448

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1

Premier League: Nottingham Forest 4–3 Southampton

Nottingham Forest beat Southampton 4-3 in Premier League on May 8, 2023.

Goals: T. Awoniyi (18', 21'), C. Alcaraz (25'), M. Gibbs-White (44' pen), Lyanco (51'), Danilo (73'), J. Ward-Prowse (90+6' pen).

Southampton controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at The City Ground in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Nottingham Forest 4–3 Southampton