Nottingham Forest 1–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

Pens

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Utd

S. Cook 120+6' (pen)

Cafú 120+4' (pen)

B. Johnson 120+2' (pen), 19'

I. Ndiaye 120+7' (pen)

S. Berge 120+5' (pen)

J. Fleck 75'

M. Gibbs-White 47'

5/17/2022

Championship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsThe City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest39%

×Draw28%

Sheffield Utd33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

Nottingham Forest

1.24

Sheffield Utd

1.13

Nottingham Forest creates 10% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 116 away

1.41

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Sheffield Utd

1.25

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Sheffield Utd

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

67%

Nottingham Forest or Sheffield Utd

72%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

61%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

17%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

71%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

35%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

68%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

31%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

54%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

39%

level

28%

Sheffield Utd scores more

33%

Nottingham Forest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

B. Samba

Nottingham Forest · G

8.2

Match Events

19'

B. Johnson↳ S. Surridge

47'

M. Gibbs-White↳ S. Berge

58'

Jack Robinson

71'

J. Lolley← P. Zinckernagel

75'

Scott McKenna

75'

K. Davis← S. Surridge

75'

J. Fleck↳ G. Baldock

90+1'

Joe Worrall

108'

B. Osborn← G. Baldock

109'

C. Hourihane← J. Fleck

111'

Steve Cook

119'

Cafú← J. Garner

120+1'

O. NorwoodMissed penalty

120+2'

B. JohnsonPenalty

120+3'

C. HourihaneMissed penalty

120+4'

CafúPenalty

120+5'

S. BergePenalty

120+6'

S. CookPenalty

120+7'

I. NdiayePenalty

120+8'

J. LolleyMissed penalty

120+9'

M. Gibbs-WhiteMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamSheffield

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots20

6Corners8

11Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots20

4On Target6

6Off Target8

3Blocked6

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

437Total Passes476

268Accurate Passes291

61%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2