Nottingham Forest 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

L. Grabban 86' (pen)

9/22/2018

Championship · Round 9City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Nottingham Forest55%

×Draw25%

Rotherham20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.83

Nottingham Forest

1.57

Rotherham

0.83

Nottingham Forest creates 89% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 90 away

1.41

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Rotherham

0.67

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Rotherham

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

80%

Nottingham Forest or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

45%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

29%

Rotherham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

79%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

46%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

21%

Rotherham 1+ goals

56%

Rotherham 2+ goals

20%

Rotherham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

73%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

55%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

20%

Nottingham Forest at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Janko

Nottingham Forest · D

7.6

Match Events

32'

Adlène Guédioura

33'

Billy Jones

46'

M. Smith← J. Proctor

60'

J. Lolley← A. Guédioura

72'

M. Cash← Gil Dias

72'

M. Palmer← R. Manning

86'

Richie Towell

86'

L. GrabbanPenalty

88'

J. Taylor← R. Towell

90'

Will Vaulks

90+3'

L. Bridcutt← João Carvalho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamRotherham

Overview

63%Possession37%

9Total Shots5

4Corners4

11Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots5

2On Target1

1Off Target3

6Blocked1

4Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

498Total Passes283

403Accurate Passes187

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides4