Nottingham Forest 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

M. Lowe 52'

M. Smith 32'

9/25/2021

Championship · Round 9The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest43%

×Draw28%

Millwall29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Nottingham Forest

1.32

Millwall

1.02

Nottingham Forest creates 29% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 189 away

1.41

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Millwall

1.04

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Millwall

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

71%

Nottingham Forest or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

57%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

20%

Millwall wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

73%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

38%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

64%

Millwall 2+ goals

27%

Millwall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

60%

Millwall (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Millwall attack 1.04 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

43%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

29%

Nottingham Forest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Smith

Millwall · F

8.2

Match Events

27'

L. Taylor← L. Grabban

32'

M. Smith↳ S. Ojo

52'

M. Lowe↳ S. McKenna

55'

Tobias Figueiredo

69'

P. Zinckernagel← J. Lolley

69'

B. Afobe← C. Mahoney

78'

Maikel Kieftenbeld

78'

B. Mitchell← M. Kieftenbeld

79'

G. Evans← S. Ojo

82'

Joe Worrall

82'

Benik Afobe

85'

Daniel Ballard

87'

A. Mighten← B. Johnson

87'

T. Bradshaw← M. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamMillwall

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots12

3Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target2

1Off Target7

6Blocked3

4Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

446Total Passes342

341Accurate Passes232

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0