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Nottingham Forest vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
10/3/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest43%
×Draw28%
Millwall29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest
1.32
Millwall
1.02

Nottingham Forest creates 29% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 189 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest
1.41
Millwall
1.04

allows per match

Nottingham Forest
1.00
Millwall
1.23

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw
71%
Nottingham Forest or Millwall
72%
Draw or Millwall
57%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
20%
Millwall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
73%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
38%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
15%
Millwall 1+ goals
64%
Millwall 2+ goals
27%
Millwall 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
60%
Millwall (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Millwall attack 1.04 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more
43%
level
28%
Millwall scores more
29%

Nottingham Forest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest vs Millwall

Nottingham Forest and Millwall drew 2-2 in Championship on October 3, 2018.

The match was played at City Ground in Nottingham.