Nottingham Forest 1–1 Manchester City

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

C. Wood 84'

Bernardo Silva 41'

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 24The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Nottingham Forest33%

×Draw25%

Manchester City42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.50

Nottingham Forest

1.29

Manchester City

1.50

Manchester City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.37

creates per match

1.78

1.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.37

Manchester City

1.78

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.21

Manchester City

1.20

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.06on par

Manchester City-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

58%

Nottingham Forest or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

67%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

14%

Manchester City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

72%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

37%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

14%

Manchester City 1+ goals

78%

Manchester City 2+ goals

44%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

44%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.37 + Manchester City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Manchester City attack 1.78 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

33%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

42%

Manchester City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

Joe Worrall

41'

Bernardo Silva↳ J. Grealish

58'

N. Williams← J. Colback

58'

A. Ayew← Danilo

72'

O. Mangala← J. Shelvey

79'

H. Toffolo← Renan Lodi

79'

C. Wood← S. Aurier

84'

C. Wood↳ M. Gibbs-White

86'

Chris WoodGoal confirmed

88'

J. Álvarez← K. De Bruyne

89'

N. Aké← P. Foden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamManchester

Overview

27%Possession73%

4Total Shots23

0.95Expected Goals (xG)2.40

0Corners10

8Fouls6

Shots

4Total Shots23

1On Target6

2Off Target11

1Blocked6

3Inside Box10

1Outside Box13

Passing

27%Possession73%

252Total Passes676

164Accurate Passes595

65%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Nottingham Forest and Manchester City drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 18, 2023.

Goals: Bernardo Silva (41'), C. Wood (84').

Manchester City controlled possession (73%) and registered 23 shots to 4.

The match was played at The City Ground in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City