Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham Forest

Manchester City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nottingham Forest

J. Doku 57'

K. De Bruyne 31'

Bernardo Silva 8'

12/4/2024

Premier League · Round 14Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Manchester City61%

×Draw21%

Nottingham Forest18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.97

Manchester City

1.99

Nottingham Forest

0.97

Manchester City creates 105% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

2.09

creates per match

0.94

1.01

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Manchester City

2.09

Nottingham Forest

0.94

allows per match

Manchester City

1.01

Nottingham Forest

1.89

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.30scores more

Nottingham Forest+0.37scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

82%

Manchester City or Nottingham Forest

79%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

39%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

37%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

86%

Manchester City 2+ goals

59%

Manchester City 3+ goals

32%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

62%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

25%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

77%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.01 · 31 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.89 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.09 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.99

Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 + Manchester City defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Manchester City scores more

61%

level

21%

Nottingham Forest scores more

18%

Manchester City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

8.9

Match Events

8'

Bernardo Silva↳ K. De Bruyne

31'

K. De Bruyne↳ J. Doku

45+1'

Nicolás Domínguez

46'

K. Walker← M. Akanji

46'

Morato← R. Yates

51'

52'

54'

57'

62'

63'

E. da Silva Moreira← O. Aina

63'

E. Anderson← M. Gibbs-White

69'

Bernardo Silva

72'

R. Sosa← Jota Silva

74'

R. Lewis← K. De Bruyne

76'

Nikola Milenković

90'

Savinho← J. Doku

90'

Matheus Nunes← J. Grealish

90'

J. McAtee← N. Aké

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterNottingham

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots12

2.41Expected Goals (xG)0.88

8Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots12

7On Target3

7Off Target7

3Blocked2

12Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

548Total Passes277

487Accurate Passes219

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

7Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2