Nottingham Forest 0–1 Fulham: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fulham

R. Jiménez 51' (pen)

9/28/2024

Premier League · Round 6The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Nottingham Forest46%

×Draw26%

Fulham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Nottingham Forest

1.52

Fulham

1.13

Nottingham Forest creates 35% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.43

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.43

Fulham

1.13

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.13

Fulham

1.62

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.14scores less

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

72%

Nottingham Forest or Fulham

74%

Draw or Fulham

54%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

23%

Fulham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

78%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

45%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

20%

Fulham 1+ goals

68%

Fulham 2+ goals

31%

Fulham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

62%

Fulham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 34 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.43 + Fulham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fulham attack 1.13 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

46%

level

26%

Fulham scores more

28%

Nottingham Forest at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Andersen

Fulham · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

Ryan Yates

46'

A. Elanga← T. Awoniyi

49'

Andreas PereiraPenalty confirmed

50'

Murillo

51'

R. JiménezPenalty

54'

Kenny Tete

57'

Jota Silva← E. Anderson

57'

C. Hudson-Odoi← N. Domínguez

59'

Saša Lukić

69'

R. Nelson← Adama Traoré

69'

S. Berge← Andreas Pereira

75'

R. Sosa← J. Ward-Prowse

83'

Rodrigo Muniz← R. Jiménez

83'

H. Reed← S. Lukić

84'

Bernd Leno

84'

N. Williams← Álex Moreno

88'

I. Diop← E. Smith Rowe

90'

Harrison Reed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamFulham

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots14

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.33

6Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots14

1On Target2

5Off Target5

5Blocked7

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

351Total Passes527

278Accurate Passes459

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

7Offsides1