Nottingham Forest 2–3 Fulham: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Nottingham Forest

1.50

Fulham

1.18

Nottingham Forest creates 27% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

1.11

1.25

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.38

Fulham

1.11

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.25

Fulham

1.61

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.01on par

Fulham-0.24scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

70%

Nottingham Forest or Fulham

74%

Draw or Fulham

55%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

22%

Fulham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

78%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

44%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

19%

Fulham 1+ goals

69%

Fulham 2+ goals

33%

Fulham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

60%

Fulham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 41 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.38 + Fulham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fulham attack 1.11 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

45%

level

26%

Fulham scores more

30%

Nottingham Forest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. O'Brien

Nottingham Forest · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

27'

34'

40'

54'

T. Adarabioyo↳ Willian

57'

João Palhinha↳ K. Tete

58'

João Palhinha

60'

H. Reed↳ B. De Cordova-Reid

63'

Kenny Tete

63'

J. Worrall← W. Boly

63'

J. Lingard← S. Cook

69'

D. James← Willian

70'

L. O'Brien← R. Freuler

70'

S. Surridge← T. Awoniyi

77'

L. O'Brien

78'

Andreas Pereira

83'

T. Cairney← Andreas Pereira

88'

E. Dennis← N. Williams

90+1'

N. Kebano← B. De Cordova-Reid

90'

Carlos Vinícius← A. Mitrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamFulham

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots15

2Corners10

11Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked5

7Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

375Total Passes555

279Accurate Passes460

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1