Nottingham Forest 0–1 Everton: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Everton

4/12/2025

Premier League · Round 32The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Nottingham Forest44%

×Draw25%

Everton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.24

Nottingham Forest

1.54

Everton

1.24

Nottingham Forest creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

1.34

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.34

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Everton

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

69%

Nottingham Forest or Everton

75%

Draw or Everton

56%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

22%

Everton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

79%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

45%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

20%

Everton 1+ goals

71%

Everton 2+ goals

35%

Everton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

59%

Everton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.34 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Everton attack 1.15 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

44%

level

25%

Everton scores more

31%

Nottingham Forest at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff