Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crystal Palace

C. Wood 61'

J. Mateta 11'

3/30/2024

Premier League · Round 30The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Nottingham Forest39%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Crystal Palace

1.21

Nottingham Forest creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

1.37

creates per match

1.19

1.22

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.37

Crystal Palace

1.19

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.22

Crystal Palace

1.28

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.16scores less

Crystal Palace-0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

66%

Nottingham Forest or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

61%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

18%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

74%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

38%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

15%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

70%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

34%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

54%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 28 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.28 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.37 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Crystal Palace attack 1.19 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

39%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

34%

Nottingham Forest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Eze

Crystal Palace · F

7.5

Match Events

11'

J. Mateta↳ E. Eze

46'

A. Elanga← I. Sangaré

49'

Felipe

60'

G. Reyna← D. Origi

61'

C. Wood↳ M. Gibbs-White

66'

J. Schlupp← J. Ayew

70'

Jeffrey Schlupp

80'

W. Hughes← A. Wharton

84'

H. Toffolo← O. Aina

90+4'

N. Clyne← T. Mitchell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamCrystal

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots10

0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.19

4Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target3

3Off Target6

4Blocked1

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

547Total Passes397

461Accurate Passes300

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0