Nottingham Forest 0–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

11/30/2019

Championship · Round 19The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Nottingham Forest45%

×Draw26%

Cardiff28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.08

Nottingham Forest

1.44

Cardiff

1.08

Nottingham Forest creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 145 away

1.34

creates per match

1.15

1.02

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.34

Cardiff

1.15

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.02

Cardiff

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

72%

Nottingham Forest or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

55%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

22%

Cardiff wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

76%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

42%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

18%

Cardiff 1+ goals

66%

Cardiff 2+ goals

29%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

62%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.02 · 93 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.34 + Cardiff defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cardiff attack 1.15 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

45%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

28%

Nottingham Forest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff