Cardiff 0–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

J. Garner 29'

4/2/2021

Championship · Round 39Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Cardiff35%

×Draw29%

Nottingham Forest37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.15

Cardiff

1.11

Nottingham Forest

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 95 away

1.21

creates per match

1.14

1.15

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Cardiff

1.21

Nottingham Forest

1.14

allows per match

Cardiff

1.15

Nottingham Forest

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

63%

Cardiff or Nottingham Forest

71%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

65%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

14%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

67%

Cardiff 2+ goals

30%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

68%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

32%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

49%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.21 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nottingham Forest attack 1.14 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more

35%

level

29%

Nottingham Forest scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Christie

Nottingham Forest · D

8.0

Match Events

14'

Marlon Pack

26'

Cyrus Christie

29'

J. Garner↳ C. Christie

37'

Ciaron Brown

55'

Lewis Grabban

71'

J. Murphy← H. Wilson

71'

J. Williams← J. Ralls

71'

S. Ojo← L. Bacuna

72'

L. Taylor← L. Grabban

84'

R. Colwill← W. Vaulks

84'

M. Harris← K. Moore

87'

Cafú

87'

J. Colback← Cafú

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffNottingham

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots8

6Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots8

3On Target1

9Off Target2

6Blocked5

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

360Total Passes349

254Accurate Passes242

71%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Championship: Cardiff 0–1 Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on April 2, 2021.

Goals: J. Garner (29').

Cardiff controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Cardiff 0–1 Nottingham Forest