Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Brighton

Jota Silva 90+1'

N. Williams 89'

C. Wood 69' (pen), 64', 32'

M. Gibbs-White 25'

L. Dunk 12' (OG)

2/1/2025

Premier League · Round 24The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Nottingham Forest43%

×Draw25%

Brighton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.31

Nottingham Forest

1.55

Brighton

1.31

Nottingham Forest creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

1.43

creates per match

1.50

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.43

Brighton

1.50

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.13

Brighton

1.67

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.14scores less

Brighton-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

68%

Nottingham Forest or Brighton

75%

Draw or Brighton

57%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

21%

Brighton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

79%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

46%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

20%

Brighton 1+ goals

73%

Brighton 2+ goals

38%

Brighton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

57%

Brighton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 34 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.43 + Brighton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Brighton attack 1.50 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

43%

level

25%

Brighton scores more

32%

Nottingham Forest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Wood

Nottingham Forest · F

9.3

Match Events

7'

Murillo

12'

Danny Welbeck

12'

L. DunkOwn goal

20'

Jack Hinshelwood

25'

M. Gibbs-White↳ A. Elanga

32'

C. Wood↳ A. Elanga

46'

S. Adingra← K. Mitoma

46'

D. Gómez← João Pedro

46'

M. O'Riley← J. Hinshelwood

64'

C. Wood↳ A. Elanga

65'

N. Domínguez← Danilo

69'

C. WoodPenalty

72'

W. Boly← Murillo

72'

Jota Silva← M. Gibbs-White

73'

E. Ferguson← D. Welbeck

82'

I. Sangaré← E. Anderson

82'

T. Awoniyi← C. Wood

89'

N. Williams↳ I. Sangaré

90'

Bart Verbruggen

90+1'

Jota Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamBrighton

Overview

37%Possession63%

14Total Shots10

3.41Expected Goals (xG)0.88

4Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

9On Target5

4Off Target3

1Blocked2

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

326Total Passes534

256Accurate Passes458

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

-2.50Goals Prevented-2.50

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Premier League: Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton

Nottingham Forest beat Brighton 7-0 in Premier League on February 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Dunk (12' o.g.), M. Gibbs-White (25'), C. Wood (32', 64', 69' pen), N. Williams (89'), Jota Silva (90+1').

Brighton controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at The City Ground in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Nottingham Forest 7–0 Brighton