Nottingham Forest 1–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal

T. Awoniyi 89'

B. Saka 72'

Gabriel Jesus 65'

1/30/2024

Premier League · Round 22The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Nottingham Forest31%

×Draw26%

Arsenal43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.44

Nottingham Forest

1.19

Arsenal

1.44

Arsenal creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

1.39

creates per match

1.69

1.18

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.39

Arsenal

1.69

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.18

Arsenal

1.00

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Nottingham Forest-0.04on par

Arsenal+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

57%

Nottingham Forest or Arsenal

74%

Draw or Arsenal

69%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

13%

Arsenal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

33%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Arsenal 1+ goals

76%

Arsenal 2+ goals

42%

Arsenal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

42%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 37 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.39 + Arsenal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arsenal attack 1.69 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

31%

level

26%

Arsenal scores more

43%

Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

B. Saka

Arsenal · F

8.3

Match Events

40'

Gabriel Jesus

46'

T. Awoniyi← C. Wood

64'

C. Hudson-Odoi← N. Domínguez

65'

Gabriel Jesus↳ O. Zinchenko

71'

R. Yates← O. Mangala

71'

K. Havertz← E. Smith Rowe

72'

B. Saka↳ Gabriel Jesus

78'

A. Elanga← N. Williams

78'

L. Trossard← Gabriel Martinelli

78'

E. Nketiah← Gabriel Jesus

89'

T. Awoniyi↳ G. Montiel

90+2'

Jorginho← M. Ødegaard

90+2'

J. Kiwior← O. Zinchenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamArsenal

Overview

27%Possession73%

9Total Shots19

0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.32

2Corners10

6Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots19

3On Target3

3Off Target7

3Blocked9

5Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

27%Possession73%

268Total Passes759

195Accurate Passes676

73%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3