Nottingham Forest U21 1–3 Southampton U21

Nottingham Forest U21

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton U21

A. Mighten 47'

J. Turner 52'

D. Ballard 49', 46'

8/8/2022

League #702 · Group 2 - 1Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nottingham Forest U2142%

×Draw22%

Southampton U2136%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U21Expected goals in this matchSouthampton U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.66

Nottingham Forest U21

1.82

Southampton U21

1.66

Nottingham Forest U21 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.64

creates per match

2.25

1.07

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.64

Southampton U21

2.25

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.07

Southampton U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U21+0.00on par

Southampton U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U21 ↓

Southampton U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U21 or draw

64%

Nottingham Forest U21 or Southampton U21

78%

Draw or Southampton U21

58%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U21 wins by 2+

22%

Southampton U21 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U21 1+ goals

84%

Nottingham Forest U21 2+ goals

54%

Nottingham Forest U21 3+ goals

27%

Southampton U21 1+ goals

81%

Southampton U21 2+ goals

49%

Southampton U21 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U21 (draw refunded)

54%

Southampton U21 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U21 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Southampton U21 away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.64 + Southampton U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Southampton U21 attack 2.25 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nottingham Forest U21 scores more

42%

level

22%

Southampton U21 scores more

36%

Nottingham Forest U21 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

B. Fewster

33'

N. Lawrence

46'

L. Pearce← D. Edwards

46'

D. Ballard↳ S. Bellis

47'

A. Mighten↳ D. Taylor

49'

D. Ballard↳ C. Bragg

52'

J. Turner

54'

G. Biancone

62'

B. Hammond← G. Biancone

62'

A. Gibson-Hammond← O. Mangala

74'

R. Finnigan← S. Bellis

74'

Z. Otseh-Taiwo← C. Bragg

85'

R. Finnigan

Nottingham

Southampton

1

11

3

5

2

4

8

⚽

Turner

10

▼

Edwards

6

A

▼

Bragg

7

A

▼

Bellis

9

⚽2

Ballard

1

Smith

6

Soh

2

▼

Biancone

3

Donnelly

5

McAdam

4

▼

10

8

7

9

⚽

Mighten

11

A

Taylor

Manager: A. Reid

62'▲B. Hammond←▼G. Biancone

62'▲A. Gibson-Hammond←▼O. Mangala

Nottingham Forest U21 substitutes

17Hammond16Gibson-Hammond15Salmon12Hammond14Larsson

Manager: D. Horseman

46'▲L. Pearce←▼D. Edwards

74'▲R. Finnigan←▼S. Bellis

74'▲Z. Otseh-Taiwo←▼C. Bragg

Southampton U21 substitutes

14Pearce16Finnigan12Otseh-Taiwo15Lancashire13Hall