Nottingham Forest U18 1–4 Wolves U18

Nottingham Forest U18

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Wolves U18

T. Brandy 23'

M. Bradbury 73'

Mateus Mané 53'

C. McLeod 11'

E. Ballard-Matthews 4'

10/19/2024

League #695 · North - 7Nottingham Forest Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1837%

×Draw22%

Wolves U1841%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U18Expected goals in this matchWolves U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.83

Nottingham Forest U18

1.74

Wolves U18

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

1.91

1.75

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.40

Wolves U18

1.91

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.75

Wolves U18

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par

Wolves U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Wolves U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw

59%

Nottingham Forest U18 or Wolves U18

78%

Draw or Wolves U18

63%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+

19%

Wolves U18 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals

82%

Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals

52%

Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals

25%

Wolves U18 1+ goals

84%

Wolves U18 2+ goals

54%

Wolves U18 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)

48%

Wolves U18 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Wolves U18 away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.40 + Wolves U18 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Wolves U18 attack 1.91 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more

37%

level

22%

Wolves U18 scores more

41%

Wolves U18 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wolves U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

E. Ballard-Matthews↳ C. McLeod

11'

C. McLeod↳ Mateus Mané

23'

T. Brandy↳ A. Bradshaw

40'

E. Ballard-Matthews

46'

K. Clarke← E. Broomes

53'

Mateus Mané↳ M. Bradbury

66'

L. O'Donnell← C. McLeod

67'

S. Hamilton← T. Brandy

73'

M. Bradbury

77'

R. Bowen← L. Rawlings

77'

J. Gidaree← M. Ruddock

88'

B. Sanneh← I. Davies

88'

J. Wilcox← E. Ballard-Matthews

Nottingham

Wolves

1

Gracey

5

Olagunju

3

Osifo

4

▼

Ruddock

2

Dayman

10

⚽A

▼

McLeod

6

⚽A

Bradbury

8

▼

Rawlings

11

Minkyu

7

⚽

▼

Ballard-M

9

⚽A

Mané

1

Willows

5

Modupe

2

▼

Broomes

8

▼

Davies

6

Boulter

10

A

7

11

3

4

9

⚽

▼

Brandy

Manager: T. Mallinson

46'▲K. Clarke←▼E. Broomes

67'▲S. Hamilton←▼T. Brandy

88'▲B. Sanneh←▼I. Davies

Nottingham Forest U18 substitutes

16Clarke14Hamilton15Sanneh12Bailey17Willows

Manager: R. Walker

66'▲L. O'Donnell←▼C. McLeod

77'▲R. Bowen←▼L. Rawlings

77'▲J. Gidaree←▼M. Ruddock

88'▲J. Wilcox←▼E. Ballard-Matthews

Wolves U18 substitutes

16O'Donnell15Bowen12Gidaree14Wilcox13Grieves