Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nottingham Forest U18 vs Newcastle United U18 — League #695 2026

Nottingham Forest U18
Nottingham Forest U18
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Newcastle United U18
Newcastle United U18
3/9/2024League #695League #695 · North - 19Nottingham Forest Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1823%
×Draw24%
Newcastle United U1853%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest U18
1.00
Newcastle United U18
1.68

Newcastle United U18 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18
1.40
Newcastle United U18
1.60

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18
1.75
Newcastle United U18
0.60

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par
Newcastle United U18+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Newcastle United U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw
47%
Nottingham Forest U18 or Newcastle United U18
76%
Draw or Newcastle United U18
77%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+
8%
Newcastle United U18 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals
63%
Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals
26%
Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals
8%
Newcastle United U18 1+ goals
81%
Newcastle United U18 2+ goals
50%
Newcastle United U18 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)
30%
Newcastle United U18 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Newcastle United U18 away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.40 + Newcastle United U18 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Newcastle United U18 attack 1.60 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more
23%
level
24%
Newcastle United U18 scores more
53%

Newcastle United U18 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Newcastle United U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest U18 vs Newcastle United U18

Newcastle United U18 beat Nottingham Forest U18 4-1 in League #695 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Nottingham Forest Football Academy in West Bridgford, Nottingham.