Nottingham Forest U18 1–0 Middlesbrough U18

Nottingham Forest U18

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough U18

A. Bradshaw 90+2'

4/27/2024

League #695 · North - 2Nottingham Forest Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1835%

×Draw25%

Middlesbrough U1840%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U18Expected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

Nottingham Forest U18

1.36

Middlesbrough U18

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.17

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.40

Middlesbrough U18

1.17

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.75

Middlesbrough U18

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par

Middlesbrough U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Middlesbrough U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw

60%

Nottingham Forest U18 or Middlesbrough U18

75%

Draw or Middlesbrough U18

65%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+

16%

Middlesbrough U18 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals

74%

Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals

39%

Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals

16%

Middlesbrough U18 1+ goals

77%

Middlesbrough U18 2+ goals

43%

Middlesbrough U18 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)

47%

Middlesbrough U18 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Middlesbrough U18 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.40 + Middlesbrough U18 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Middlesbrough U18 attack 1.17 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more

35%

level

25%

Middlesbrough U18 scores more

40%

Middlesbrough U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Middlesbrough U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

70'

70'

82'

85'

A. Robinson← D. Frank

90+5'

A. Bradshaw

90+2'

A. Bradshaw

Nottingham

Middlesbrough

1

4

3

2

9

▼

Muwana

10

▼

7

6

5

11

8

▼

1

3

5

2

6

⚽

Bradshaw

7

Daly

8

Smith

10

▼

9

11

4

Manager: T. Mallinson

85'▲A. Robinson←▼D. Frank

Nottingham Forest U18 substitutes

15Robinson14Thompson18Brandy16Whiteley12Smith

Manager: J. Marwood

70'▲A. Dore←▼I. Greenup

70'▲L. Bevan←▼N. Muwana

82'▲L. Parker←▼D. James

Middlesbrough U18 substitutes

12Dore15Bevan14Parker16Roberts21Lloyd

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest U18 vs Middlesbrough U18

Nottingham Forest U18 beat Middlesbrough U18 1-0 in League #695 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Bradshaw (90+2').

The match was played at Nottingham Forest Football Academy in West Bridgford, Nottingham.

Nottingham Forest U18 vs Middlesbrough U18 — League #695 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest U18 vs Middlesbrough U18