Nottingham Forest U18 0–3 Manchester United U18

Nottingham Forest U18

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United U18

J. Bailey 90+1'

J. Overy 68'

A. Ibragimov 61'

4/12/2025

League #695 · North - 23The Nigel Doughty Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1834%

×Draw23%

Manchester United U1842%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U18Expected goals in this matchManchester United U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.68

Nottingham Forest U18

1.50

Manchester United U18

1.68

Manchester United U18 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.60

1.75

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.40

Manchester United U18

1.60

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.75

Manchester United U18

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par

Manchester United U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Manchester United U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw

58%

Nottingham Forest U18 or Manchester United U18

77%

Draw or Manchester United U18

66%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+

16%

Manchester United U18 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals

78%

Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals

44%

Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals

19%

Manchester United U18 1+ goals

81%

Manchester United U18 2+ goals

50%

Manchester United U18 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)

45%

Manchester United U18 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Manchester United U18 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.40 + Manchester United U18 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Manchester United U18 attack 1.60 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more

34%

level

23%

Manchester United U18 scores more

42%

Manchester United U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manchester United U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

H. Andrews← W. Thompson

39'

C. Daly

59'

B. Sanneh

61'

A. Ibragimov

63'

E. Broomes← H. Andrews

68'

J. Overy↳ Z. Baumann

70'

A. Mills← J. Ngwashi

73'

J. Bailey← Z. Baumann

74'

S. Lacey← A. Ibragimov

75'

K. Bradshaw← S. Hamilton

75'

S. Samuels← S. Sutton

77'

J. Thwaites

84'

N. Ajayi← S. Lusale

90+1'

J. Bailey↳ S. Lacey

Nottingham

Manchester

1

Murdock

4

Armer

5

Plunkett

2

⚽

Overy

3

▼

Ngwashi

11

Thwaites

8

A

▼

Baumann

6

Devaney

7

▼

Lusale

9

Musa

10

⚽

▼

Ibragimov

1

Graham

5

▼

2

6

4

7

10

8

3

▼

Sutton

11

Brandy

9

▼

Hamilton

Manager: T. Mallinson

34'▲H. Andrews←▼W. Thompson

63'▲E. Broomes←▼H. Andrews

75'▲K. Bradshaw←▼S. Hamilton

75'▲S. Samuels←▼S. Sutton

Nottingham Forest U18 substitutes

16Andrews17Broomes14Bradshaw15Samuels12Bailey

Manager: A. Lawrence

70'▲A. Mills←▼J. Ngwashi

73'▲J. Bailey←▼Z. Baumann

74'▲S. Lacey←▼A. Ibragimov

84'▲N. Ajayi←▼S. Lusale

Manchester United U18 substitutes

12Mills14Bailey15Lacey16Ajayi13Byrne-Hughes