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Nottingham Forest U18 vs Liverpool U18 — League #695 2026

Nottingham Forest U18
Nottingham Forest U18
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Liverpool U18
Liverpool U18
2/26/2025League #695League #695 · North - 13The Nigel Doughty Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1855%
×Draw20%
Liverpool U1825%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest U18
2.34
Liverpool U18
1.55

Nottingham Forest U18 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18
1.94
Liverpool U18
1.75

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18
1.35
Liverpool U18
2.75

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par
Liverpool U18+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Liverpool U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw
75%
Nottingham Forest U18 or Liverpool U18
80%
Draw or Liverpool U18
45%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+
34%
Liverpool U18 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals
90%
Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals
67%
Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals
41%
Liverpool U18 1+ goals
79%
Liverpool U18 2+ goals
46%
Liverpool U18 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)
69%
Liverpool U18 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Liverpool U18 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.94 + Liverpool U18 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.34

Liverpool U18 attack 1.75 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more
55%
level
20%
Liverpool U18 scores more
25%

Nottingham Forest U18 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #695: Nottingham Forest U18 5–2 Liverpool U18

Nottingham Forest U18 beat Liverpool U18 5-2 in League #695 on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at The Nigel Doughty Academy in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.