Nottingham Forest U18 0–3 Everton U18

Nottingham Forest U18

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Everton U18

G. Morgan 90+3' (pen)

J. Clarke 28'

R. Robert 13'

3/1/2025

League #695 · North - 19The Nigel Doughty Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1832%

×Draw24%

Everton U1844%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U18Expected goals in this matchEverton U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.68

Nottingham Forest U18

1.40

Everton U18

1.68

Everton U18 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.60

1.75

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.40

Everton U18

1.60

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18

1.75

Everton U18

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par

Everton U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Everton U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw

56%

Nottingham Forest U18 or Everton U18

76%

Draw or Everton U18

68%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+

14%

Everton U18 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals

75%

Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals

41%

Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals

17%

Everton U18 1+ goals

81%

Everton U18 2+ goals

50%

Everton U18 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)

42%

Everton U18 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Everton U18 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.40 + Everton U18 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Everton U18 attack 1.60 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more

32%

level

24%

Everton U18 scores more

44%

Everton U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Everton U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

28'

32'

46'

46'

68'

C. Stewart← J. Clarke

70'

S. Hamilton← Fuad Smith

78'

81'

83'

84'

90+1'

90+1'

90+3'

G. MorganPenalty

Nottingham

Everton

1

4

3

2

6

5

7

⚽

▼

Clarke

8

Akarakiri

10

⚽

▼

Robert

9

⚽A

11

1

4

2

▼

6

3

8

11

▼

Smith

5

Robinson

10

▼

Blake

9

Powell

7

▼

Brandy

Manager: T. Mallinson

46'▲D. Frank←▼Z. Blake

46'▲C. Daly←▼T. Brandy

70'▲S. Hamilton←▼Fuad Smith

84'▲E. Lokote←▼B. Sanneh

Nottingham Forest U18 substitutes

14Frank15Daly16Hamilton17Lokote12Bailey

Manager: K. Southern

68'▲C. Stewart←▼J. Clarke

78'▲C. Loney←▼R. Robert

Everton U18 substitutes

15Stewart14Loney16Freedman12Gospel-Eze17Billington