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Notre Dame vs Silver Sands — Premier League 2019

Notre Dame
Notre Dame
CANC
00:00
Silver Sands
Silver Sands
5/4/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Notre Dame56%
×Draw18%
Silver Sands25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notre Dame
2.67
Silver Sands
1.77

Notre Dame creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Notre Dame
1.86
Silver Sands
0.83

allows per match

Notre Dame
2.71
Silver Sands
3.48

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par
Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

Silver Sands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw
75%
Notre Dame or Silver Sands
82%
Draw or Silver Sands
44%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+
37%
Silver Sands wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals
93%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
74%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
49%
Silver Sands 1+ goals
83%
Silver Sands 2+ goals
53%
Silver Sands 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)
69%
Silver Sands (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.86 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.67

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + Notre Dame defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Notre Dame scores more
56%
level
18%
Silver Sands scores more
25%

Notre Dame at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Notre Dame will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Notre Dame host Silver Sands

May 4, 2020: Notre Dame take on Silver Sands in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Notre Dame host Silver Sands at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.