Notre Dame 1–1 Paradise: Result & Stats

Notre Dame

FT

1 – 1

Paradise

1/28/2023

Premier League · Round 2Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Notre Dame24%

×Draw19%

Paradise57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notre DameExpected goals in this matchParadise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.56

Notre Dame

1.63

Paradise

2.56

Paradise creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

1.86

creates per match

2.41

2.71

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Notre Dame

1.86

Paradise

2.41

allows per match

Notre Dame

2.71

Paradise

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Paradise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

Paradise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw

43%

Notre Dame or Paradise

81%

Draw or Paradise

76%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+

11%

Paradise wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals

80%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

48%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

22%

Paradise 1+ goals

92%

Paradise 2+ goals

72%

Paradise 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

29%

Paradise (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Paradise away — creates 2.41, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.86 + Paradise defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Paradise attack 2.41 + Notre Dame defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Notre Dame scores more

24%

level

19%

Paradise scores more

57%

Paradise at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff