Notre Dame 1–2 Empire Club: Result & Stats

Notre Dame

FT

1 – 2

Empire Club

3/12/2023

Premier League · Round 4Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Notre Dame34%

×Draw21%

Empire Club46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notre DameExpected goals in this matchEmpire Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.13

Notre Dame

1.81

Empire Club

2.13

Empire Club creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

1.86

creates per match

1.54

2.71

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Notre Dame

1.86

Empire Club

1.54

allows per match

Notre Dame

2.71

Empire Club

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Empire Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

Empire Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw

54%

Notre Dame or Empire Club

79%

Draw or Empire Club

66%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+

17%

Empire Club wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals

84%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

54%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

27%

Empire Club 1+ goals

88%

Empire Club 2+ goals

63%

Empire Club 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

42%

Empire Club (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Empire Club away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.86 + Empire Club defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Empire Club attack 1.54 + Notre Dame defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Notre Dame scores more

34%

level

21%

Empire Club scores more

46%

Empire Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Empire Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff