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Notre Dame vs BDF — Premier League 2019

Notre Dame
Notre Dame
CANC
23:00
BDF
BDF
5/16/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Notre Dame38%
×Draw20%
BDF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notre Dame
2.19
BDF
2.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Notre Dame
1.86
BDF
1.93

allows per match

Notre Dame
2.71
BDF
2.53

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par
BDF+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

BDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw
58%
Notre Dame or BDF
80%
Draw or BDF
62%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+
21%
BDF wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals
89%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
64%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
37%
BDF 1+ goals
90%
BDF 2+ goals
67%
BDF 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)
47%
BDF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

BDF away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.86 + BDF defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.19

BDF attack 1.93 + Notre Dame defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Notre Dame scores more
38%
level
20%
BDF scores more
42%

BDF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Notre Dame host BDF

May 16, 2020: Notre Dame take on BDF in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Notre Dame host BDF at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.